02
Assessing Bangladesh's Readiness for a Climate Migration Hub
SPRING 2023
in collaboration with Azaria Laras
read the report here
The impact of global climate change is reshaping our world, influencing an increased frequency and severity of climate-induced hazards and multifaceted challenges. As a result, the threat of the Great Climate Migration is becoming a reality. According to the think tank the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), there are an estimated 1.2 billion people that could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters (Zurich). While each country is impacted differently, Bangladesh, often referred to as “ground zero for climate change,” is particularly vulnerable due to its low sea level, high population density, and inadequate infrastructure (Natural Resources Defense Council). Despite being responsible for less than 0.35 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Bangladesh faces ongoing catastrophic natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, river and coastal flooding, landslides and droughts (International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept). As a result, communities are frequently undergoing change with a significant impact on their economic, social, and environmental landscapes. The constant displacement, in particular, has contributed to a range of economic and social challenges, making it a critical issue to address in the context of climate migration. Many existing migration studies have examined the migration effects after major climate hazards and/ or have focused on communities that are highly exposed. In our study, we observe historical flood patterns in relation to socioeconomic factors while unveiling Bangladesh’s readiness on becoming a climate migration hub. Using the same dataset from the preliminary climate hazard analysis, we predict population changes in 2020-2025 using a geographically weighted regression model, a local model that allows the relationship between variables to vary across space by estimating separate regression models for each location in the study area. The final part of this study is a readiness assessment of the top five locations with the highest predicted inflow. Using this information, we can better identify opportunities to approach the country’s ability to become a migration hub in the future years.